Is Tesla overvalued? The numbers don't lie

I've taken a close look at Tesla's valuation, and honestly, I'm surprised by how much higher the price is than what several different valuation methods suggest. Take an average DCF analysis, for example - it came out to just $48.8 per share, which is miles below where Tesla is trading right now.

The Price Seems Off: Using a variety of approaches—including DCF analysis, Peter Lynch's method, and Ben Graham's method—I consistently find a huge gap between the current market price and what Tesla's actually worth. Some methods even suggest a negative value, indicating significant overvaluation. One more conservative calculation gave me an intrinsic value of $371 per share, which still indicates Tesla is way overvalued at current levels.

Those Crazy Ratios: Key ratios like the P/E (103.8x) and P/FCF (365.4x) are incredibly high, showing investors are paying a huge premium for Tesla's earnings and free cash flow. The incredibly low free cash flow yield (0.3%) further highlights this overvaluation. And a negative PEG ratio (-2.1x)? That's a serious warning sign. Even the EV/EBIT ratio of 171.8x is exceptionally high.

Tesla's Strengths and Weaknesses: To be fair, Tesla does have its strengths: strong growth, solid profitability, and financial health. But its capital allocation strategy could be better, and yeah it’s a great company, but its current valuation just doesn’t seem to match the reality of its fundamentals.

Compared to the Competition: Here’s another red flag: Tesla’s P/E ratio is 103.8x, the median is just 6.0x. Yes, Tesla’s revenue growth (18.8%), EPS growth (17.7%), and net income margin (15.5%) are impressive, but do those numbers justify such a massive valuation premium over its peers? I don’t think so.

The Big Picture: High Stakes on Future Growth: A significant portion of Tesla's current market cap is based on expectations of future growth. That's a big bet, and it makes me wonder if the market's expectations might be overly optimistic. The massive difference between its Enterprise Value ($814.7B) and Earnings Power Value ($109.2B) underscores this reliance on future growth.

What you guys think?

Btw, some additional data on Tesla here: https://valuesense.io/ticker/tsla